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SHREVEPORT, La. - Louisiana Economic Forecast shows all the state's metro areas are expected to add jobs over the next two years, which will help boost the state's slow recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.Louisiana State University economist Loren Scott presented his predictions for the state's economy in 2023 and 2024 at an event in Shreveport on FridayScott contends Louisiana is well positioned to weather a national recession with significant job gains over the next two years, driven in large part by industrial construction, new health care facilities and Amazon distribution centers.In the Shreveport-Bossier market that also includes DeSoto and Webster parishes, Scott calls it a "basket full of good news." Unlike the other areas of the state, a key metric for this corner of the state is its relatively high dependency on durable goods manufacturing employment, which makes the area much more susceptible to national recessions -- an important consideration for 2023.Some of the larger durable goods manufacturers are:• Sabre Industries – (formerly, CellXion) a manufacturer of cellular towers• Frymaster – a manufacturer of deep fryers and similar products for McDonalds and KFC• Ternium – a steel components manufacturer• Benteler Steel – a large steel plant at the Port of Caddo Bossier• Fibrebond – in Minden, which manufactures modular electric buildings for dataThree major players in this market are:• The Caddo-Bossier Port which is home to several firms including Ronpak, Sports South, the Ternium steel firm, the Pratt recycling company, Morris-Dickson, OMNI, Calumet Packaging, and Benteler Steel. Altogether, tenants at the Port employ about 1,583 people.• The Cyber Research Center which is a major new and growing player in the region with 1,700 employees at its three centers.• BRF employs 614 people at its various facilities, including its incubator support for new firms. It is home to the new Center for Molecular Imaging & TherapyShreveport-Bossier is also home of the Haynesville Shale -- a very large deposit of natural gas. One of the first plays to use the fracking technology, exploration companies invested $4.5 billion in new dollars (including about $3.2 billion in mineral lease payments) into the northwest section of the state in 2008.The following year, that figure rose to $7 billion (including about $1 billion in mineral lease payments). The Haynesville is poised to be a significant factor in this region’s economy over the next two yearsThe military plays an important role in this market because Bossier City is home to Barksdale Air Force Base, an employer of 8,597 military/civilian workers. Shreveport-Bossier is also the state’s second largest casino market. This market now has five large river boat casinos plus the Harrah’s Racetrack, which together employed 2,875 people in early 2022.The COVID shutdown tapped this region’s employment by a drop of 22,600 jobs, a 12.6% decline in only one month.Note that with the exception of a short hiccup in late 2020 this market’s employment has risen steadily. By the middle of 2022, the Shreveport-Bossier are had recovered 82% of its COVID job losses.Part of this recovery performance was due to the natural effects of people returning to their jobs as the economy gradually reopened. This phenomenon should continue until the region returns to its pre-COVID employment levels.Haynesville ShaleThere was another important factor at work -- resurgence in Haynesville Shale drilling.Of course, the rig count has fallen dramatically since the “gold rush days” of 2008-10, but attention is called to the data for the last two years. The rig count has jumped from 20 in 2020 to 45 in 2022, a 125% increase.Rejuvenation in the Haynesville can be largely traced to the present and proposed LNG export facilities being developed in south Louisiana and southeast Texas. These export facilities need reliable and cheap natural gas. The Haynesville is much closer (read cheaper) than natural gas from the Permian Basin in West Texas.More pipelines are being built to move Haynesville gas to the Gulf Coast. In fact, the owners of the proposed Driftwood LNG near Lake Charles want to own and control their natural gas supply -- about 1.5 bcf/d. The firm is buying leases in the Haynesville for that purpose.In August, Driftwood purchased 5,000 acres in the Haynesville from EnSight IV Energy Partners for $125.5 million. The acreage includes 44 producing wells and five wells in progress.The Haynesville is further pumped by today’s unusually high natural gas prices which are in the $8+ range per mmBTU. While we expect these prices to come down a bit, they are expected to be an added enticement to drilling in the Haynesville. In other words, our expectation is that the resurgence in the Haynesville will continue through 2024, adding to our employment projections for this MSA.The Port, Amazon, Advanced Call, Haynesville & BarksdaleDespite a looming national recession, this four-parish market has so many irons in the fire that its employment should expand right through the national downturn. Scott is projecting 2,000 new jobs for 2023 and another 3,900 jobs in 2024."Not only will this performance regain all the COVID-related losses, but it will also reverse the declining track the economy was on before the COVID outbreak. Part of this rebound is simply the economy re-establishing the COVID losses, but most of the resurgence is due to newly announced projects in the region. We are aware of over $3 billion in announced or potential projects for this MSA, a number not seen since the Haynesville Shale boom in 2008-09," Scott said.Amazon to openAfter some delays in the completion of Amazon’s $200 million fulfillment center in Hunter Industrial Park, the site is now on schedule to open in September 2023. These fulfillment centers typically employ 1,000-plus workers."One reason for our nice forecast for this region in 2024 is the substantial bump provided by this center," Scott said.Boom at The PortThese are "exciting economic times" at the Port of Caddo-Bossier, Scott said. Tenaris -- a subsidiary of Ternium -- is expected to close on the purchase of Benteler Steel late this year. There are 350 people employed at this pipe mill now. Originally, Benteler planned to make this a two-function site: (1) pipe manufacturing and (2) a steel mill. Only the first of these was built by Benteler. The hope is that Tenaris will add the second, which would mean a large capital expenditure and more high-wage jobs.Ternium already has a significant steel facility at the plant which employs 167. The company issued an FID for a $98 million expansion to add a steel coil paint line. Ternium had just invested over $55 million at this site over the past two years. The new investment should be operational in mid-2024 and add 35 new jobs.OMNI is completing a $2.75 million expansion this year. Its 211-person workforce should be stable over 2023-24.Major employer Ronpak will be completing a $25 million expansion by next year. The company will add 42 jobs to its present total of 210 employees.Morris-Dickson is planning an $8 million distribution center over our forecast period. Presently employing 180 people, this expansion should push this number to 225. Employment at Sports South is projected to remain stable at 260.A nice $18 million investment for site improvements and equipment upgrades is ahead for Pratt Industries. With 118 employees now, employment may increase by less than 10 over 2023-24.Sunny Point Aggregates came to the Port in mid-May and leased 43 acres to build a $62 million regional fracking sand proppant processing facility. Once complete, Sunny Point will create 60 new jobs and a 30 foot-deep, 700-acre lake for recreational purposes.Little change in employment is projected at two of the smaller tenants at the Port, Calumet Packaging (75 employees) and Odyssey Logistics (25 jobs). Total employment at the Port is 1,583, a number that is projected to increase to 1,711.Cyber Research Center still on a rollFew would have guessed when it was founded 13 years ago in 2009 that the Cyber Research Center would become the economic engine it has become today. There are 1,700-plus people employed at its three main centers.The Center’s new Louisiana Tech Research Institute is scheduled to open near the end of 2022, adding another 400 workers. One center, General Dynamics IT (1,400 employees), has indicated a desire to double its workforce over the next 5 years.Even more encouraging is that Center officials are working on two other significant job-creators. Project X is a cybersecurity unit for the federal government that could create about 1,000 jobs over three to four years. Project Z is associated with the new weapons generations facility coming to Barksdale AFB. This new firm would be involved in the engineering and parts in support of the weapons facility.Reversal of fortunes at BarksdaleBeginnings of a reversal in fortunes at the base began this May when $33 million was awarded for site work on the much-anticipated weapons generation facility. Actual construction of the $170-$225 million facility will likely start in early 2023 after the completion of a Historic American Building Survey allows the demolition of an old storage facility on the site.Ground has already been broken for a $70-$90 million exchange on I220 for access to the weapons unit. Construction will be underway in fall 2022 for a new $36 million gate into the base for better access to the East Reservation. Economic development winsThe Shreveport-Bossier market has been the beneficiary an unusual bounty of economic wins in the past year, Scott said. Advanced Call Center Technologies has opened a unit in the East Ridge Plaza business center. The firm started hiring in February and will create 600 new jobs in the region.The Teal Jones Group is building a $110.5 million southern yellow pine lumber plant near Plain Dealing. The plant should be finished in the fall of next year and will employ 125-plus people making dimensional and specialty lumber products.Power company AEP will spend $100 million on a 77,000 square foot transmission control center in Shreveport on 30 acres within the Resiliency Technology Park. Construction should be complete by mid-2023, and AEP will add 20 jobs (at $115,000 per job) to its present 20-job workforce.Another power company -- Cleco -- has announced plans to transform the old Dolet Hills power plant site into a $250 million solar farm. The farm is scheduled for a 2025 opening.BRF has 614 people working at the headquarters or at firms recruited to its campus. BRF worked with the congressional delegation to secure a $37 million appropriation for the Global Strike Command and is very close to announcements on two new medically-oriented firms attracted to Shreveport.In Bossier City, Imperial Trading is spending $20 million to expand its distribution center which services Circle Ks and other convenience stores. The expansion will result in 125 new jobs.The Ochsner-LSU Health Partnership expects its employment levels in the region to remain stable over 2023-24, but the entity also expects to spend about $25 million annually on capital projects at the Kings Highway campus, at St. Mary Medical Center and at the Feist-Weiller Cancer Center.This market scored a significant win in the battle for state road funding. State road lettings for 2023-24 total $331.7 million, up over 2 ½ times over last year’s $129.5 million in lettings.Among the larger projects:• $150 million to replace/rehab the Jimmie Davis Bridge• $55.2 million to rehab Interstate 20 from Pines Road to Interstate 220• $16.4 million to replace the US80 bridge near MindenShreveport-Bossier Gaming: Diamond Jacks License?Even before the COVID-19 shutdown occurred, gross revenues had been declining in the Shreveport-Bossier gaming market, dropping nearly 14% between 2014 and 2020. Local casinos have been losing out to Indian Casinos in Oklahoma for the lucrative Dallas-Fort Worth gaming market.As was the case in all the gaming markets across the state, the COVID shutdown drove revenues down precipitously. The Diamond Jacks Casino actually closed its doors permanently during the shutdown.The region’s casinos enjoyed a big spike in play when the federal stimulus checks were distributed but have settled down at about their pre-COVID revenue levels.The big question for this gaming market is what is going to happen to the Diamond Jacks license. Peninsula Gaming initially wanted to move the license to St. Tammany parish, but voters there defeated that notion soundly. What happens next to this license?A hopeful scenario is starting to evolve that might keep the casino in the region and significantly improve the site as well. As KTBS recently reported, Foundation Gaming's petition to buy Diamond Jacks has been accepted by the Louisiana Board of Gaming Control. The company plans to do away with the legacy riverboat and convert to a land-based operation, which is now allowed in Louisiana. Scott said that could add 300 to 500 jobs to the casino market and an investment of $50-$100 million to rebuild the casino.  

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